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Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

There have been significant changes in this advisory. First, Lorena
has developed and eye, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance
plane indicate that the initial intensity has increased to 75 kt.
However, these winds are occuring within a small area near the
center.

More importantly, there has been a significant change in the track
models, and the guidance envelope as a whole has shifted eastward
as a mid-level trough over the western United States deepens and
shifts eastward. Consequently, the NHC forecast track, which was
previously over the southern portion of the peninsula and then over
waters to the west, is now along the spine of the peninsula. This
solution should result in weakening as the hurricane interacts with
the high terrain. However, if another small shift to the right
occurs, the hurricane will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of
California and could remain strong or even intensify. Given that
another eastward shift is possible as indicated by some global
models, the government of Mexico has extended the area of watches
and warnings northward along the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the mainland
Mexican coast.

For now, the NHC forecast, which in fact is highly uncertain, brings
Lorena toward the northwest about 7 or 8 kt during the next couple
of days. By then Lorena is expected to be a tropical depression, and
after that time it is expected to become a remnant low over the
peninsula. However, be ready for another shift to the right or to
to the left, depending on the new track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena is expected to bring
heavy rainfall to the southern Baja California Sur tonight into
Saturday, with flash flooding possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 23.2N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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