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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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