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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE  70SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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