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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  80SE  70SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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