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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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