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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Recent geostationary imagery from GOES-17 suggests that the center
of Mario is located on the northeastern edge of the convective
canopy, which is consistent with the northeasterly shear analyzed
by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 55
kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The intensity guidance shows steady weakening during the next 72
hours, with Mario expected to spin down due to persistent moderate
to strong shear and a track over cooler SSTs by 48 hours. Deep
convection should be gone by 72 hours, and remnant low status is
shown by that time, with dissipation expected by 96 hours. The new
NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
on the high end of the guidance near the LGEM model.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 360/04, as the
center location has been difficult to pinpoint without any recent
microwave imagery. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to
the previous one, showing Mario moving north-northwestward and
then northwestward in the wake of Lorena, and is close to the HCCA
and TVCE consensus. While this forecast keeps the center of the
weakening Mario offshore of the Baja California peninsula, some
impacts there are still possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 18.4N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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