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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has
become better defined overnight.  Both GPM and SSMI overpasses
reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned
with the low-level center.  This places the center well within the
convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery.  Based on
this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is
raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate
and UW/CIMSS ADT.  Mario has managed to fight off moderate
northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm
SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is
forecast.  The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory
in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24
hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm
could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in
the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow
weakening.

Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt.  A mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it
northwestward during the next day or so.  After that time, the
track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical
models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena,
with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast
and north of Mario.  For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less
interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official
forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The
medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more
uncertain than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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