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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation
associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest
the system has likely become better organized since the
scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding
features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has
developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from
TAFB/SAB fixes.

The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest
around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next
couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest
movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into
the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next
week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a
weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this
time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move
more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the
model consensus.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a
favorable environment for intensification over the next several
days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model
guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a
tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend.
There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the
cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid
intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For
now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop,
the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model
consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week
as the system moves over cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake

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