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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019
Visible satellite pictures show that the center of Ivo has become
exposed to the northeast of the deep convection due to moderate to
strong northeasterly shear. Although the latest Dvorak T-numbers
have decreased slightly, the initial intensity is being held at
55 kt which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and recent
UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates. Overnight scatterometer data should
provide a better assessment of Ivo's intensity. Guidance suggests
that the shear is likely to remain moderate to strong during the
next 12-18 hours while Ivo traverses warm waters. The shear could
relax Friday night, but by that time the cyclone is forecast to
move over decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment. As a result, little overall change in strength is
anticipated during the next day or so. After that time, Ivo should
weaken as it moves over SSTs below 26C and into a stable air mass.
The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours,
and dissipate by day 5.
Ivo has turned sharply today, with the initial motion now
north-northwestward or 335/8 kt. The storm is forecast to move
northwestward to north-northwestward around the western side of a
mid-level ridge. The latest track envelope has shifted eastward,
partially due to the sharper turn and the more eastward initial
position. This has resulted in a slightly eastward shift in the
official forecast, but it remains close to the various consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 16.9N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.5N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 21.2N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z 28.5N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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