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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Visible satellite pictures show that the center of Ivo has become
exposed to the northeast of the deep convection due to moderate to
strong northeasterly shear.  Although the latest Dvorak T-numbers
have decreased slightly, the initial intensity is being held at
55 kt which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and recent
UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates.  Overnight scatterometer data should
provide a better assessment of Ivo's intensity.  Guidance suggests
that the shear is likely to remain moderate to strong during the
next 12-18 hours while Ivo traverses warm waters.  The shear could
relax Friday night, but by that time the cyclone is forecast to
move over decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment.  As a result, little overall change in strength is
anticipated during the next day or so.  After that time, Ivo should
weaken as it moves over SSTs below 26C and into a stable air mass.
The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours,
and dissipate by day 5.

Ivo has turned sharply today, with the initial motion now
north-northwestward or 335/8 kt. The storm is forecast to move
northwestward to north-northwestward around the western side of a
mid-level ridge.  The latest track envelope has shifted eastward,
partially due to the sharper turn and the more eastward initial
position.  This has resulted in a slightly eastward shift in the
official forecast, but it remains close to the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 16.9N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 19.5N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 21.2N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 26.6N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z 28.5N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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