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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092019
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Dry air and northeasterly shear have been steadily eroding the deep
convection around the center of Henriette today. The low-level
center is exposed and the only deep convection remaining is confined
to the western semicircle. Despite the degradation in the satellite
presentation, a recent ASCAT pass showed that tropical- storm- force
winds are still occuring in a small area near the center of the
compact storm. Based on this data, the initial intensity remains 35
kt.

The initial motion is 290/11 kt. This motion will continue through
tonight while the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its
north. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the system
weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official
forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the
corrected consensus HCCA which lies on the southern side of the
other consensus aids.

Dry, stable air and ongoing shear should limit convection over the
cyclone while the circulation remains over marginally favorable
SSTs. This lack of convection should cause a weakening trend to
commence very soon. By Tuesday, Henriette will move over SSTs below
26 C, which, combined with the other unfavorable environmental
conditions, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant
low by late Tuesday. The official forecast calls for a little faster
weakening of Henriette than the previous one, and is near the
various multi-model consensus solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 20.3N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 20.9N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 21.6N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0600Z 22.1N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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