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Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 31 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that Flossie is weakening.  The
low-level center is now clearly exposed to the west of the main
area of deep convection due to northwesterly wind shear.  The
objective and subjective intensity estimates have been decreasing,
and the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt based on average of
these data.  This makes Flossie a tropical storm once again.  Very
recent ASCAT data also supports this downgrade.

Flossie is moving westward at 14 kt, steered by a deep-layer ridge
that stretches across much of the eastern Pacific.  This ridge is
expected to remain in place and should steer Flossie westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days.  The track models
are tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the usually
reliable consensus aids.  This forecast is slightly faster than the
previous one, and brings Flossie into the Central Pacific basin in
2-3 days and near the Hawaiian Islands by the end of the forecast
period.

The recent weakening of Flossie has been surprising since the shear
was not expected to be as strong as observed.  The poor current
structure and the ongoing shear suggests that some additional
weakening is likely in the short term.  However, after that time,
the global models show a more favorable upper-level wind pattern
and, since SSTs are expected to remain sufficiently warm, some
re-strengthening seems likely between 24 and 96 hours.  Weakening
is forecast by the end of the period due to another increase in
shear.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and lies near the IVCN and HCCA models.  However, this
intensity forecast is of lower confidence than normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 14.0N 127.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 14.5N 129.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 15.1N 132.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 16.3N 137.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 17.2N 143.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 18.0N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 19.3N 152.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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