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TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062019
1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 136.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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