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TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062019
0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 132.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.5N 138.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.2N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 143.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.1N 147.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 157.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 133.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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