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Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 AM HST Wed Jul 31 2019
 
Satellite imagery continues to show Hurricane Erick becoming less
well organized. The eye has become ragged and the area of coldest
cloud tops over the center continues to shrink and become less
symmetrical. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were
6.0/115 kt from JTWC and 5.5/102 kt from SAB and PHFO, while ADT is
5.0. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been
decreased slightly to 105 kt. Erick remains a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Erick continues moving
slightly north of west with little change in forward speed. The
initial motion estimate for this advisory is 280 degrees at 13 mph.
 
There has been little change in the philosophy for the forecast
track or intensity. Guidance remains consistent showing Erick
tracking slightly north of west for the next 48 hours as it
moves south of a strong subtropical ridge, passing south of the Big
Island of Hawaii Thursday night.  After passing the islands, Erick
will gradually turn towards the northwest. This track will take
Erick into an area of stronger vertical wind shear associated with a
persistent trough aloft. That environment is expected to produce
steady weakening.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 14.5N 147.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 14.8N 149.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 15.3N 151.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 15.9N 153.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 16.4N 156.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 17.6N 160.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 19.5N 164.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 21.0N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
 
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