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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

The depression has a ragged and sheared appearance. The low-level
center briefly became exposed several hours ago before a burst of
deep convection developed over the southwestern semicircle. The
subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to support a 30-kt
system, which is the initial intensity for this advisory.

The convective maximum over warm SSTs will likely maintain this
current increase in the convection through mid morning. Thereafter,
the circulation is expected to entrain stable air to its west while
continuing to be impacted by 20 kt of northeasterly shear. This
should cause a weakening trend to begin later on today or tonight.
By Sunday, the system is expected to become a remnant low devoid of
deep convection. Shortly thereafter, the low will degenerate into a
trough. The official intensity forecast is in agreement with all
available intensity guidance, with just some minor variations in
timing noted between the model solutions.

The current motion is 305/13 kt. The aforementioned exposed center
allowed for a northeastward adjustment of the cyclone's position
over the past 12 hours or so. This northwestward motion is expected
to continue while the system maintains its convection. Once the
convection dissipates, the system will become steered more toward
the west-northwest to west in the lower-level steering flow. The
latest forecast track is very near the previous official forecast
and is near the track model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.8N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.0N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

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