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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 04 2019

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that Barbara
is shearing apart, with the eyewall structure disintegrating and
the low-level center located to the south of the remaining deep
convection.  Recent scatterometer overpasses showed several 65-kt
wind vectors near the center, and based on a blend of these data
and other satellite intensity estimates the initial intensity is
reduced to 70 kt.  Increasing southwesterly shear, dry air
entrainment, and cool sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track should cause continued rapid weakening, and Barbara is
forecast to decay to a remnant low late Saturday or Saturday night
and weaken to a trough by Monday.

The initial motion is now 305/10.  The cyclone should turn
west-northwestward later today and westward by Saturday as easterly
flow on the south side of a large low- to mid-level ridge becomes
the predominant steering mechanism.  There has been little change
in the track guidance since the last advisory.  Thus, the new
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 17.7N 132.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 18.4N 134.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 18.9N 136.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 19.0N 139.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 18.9N 142.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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