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SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  69.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW 110NW.
34 KT.......300NE  90SE 180SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..900NE 300SE 480SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  69.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  69.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.2N  69.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...210NE  60SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.4N  67.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 39.0N  65.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 39.9N  61.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.3N  52.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N  69.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO


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