487 
WTNT32 KNHC 231151
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL     AL122019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN... 


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 64.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions 
are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next 
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 64.4 West. Karen is 
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this 
general motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward the 
north is expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center 
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through 
tonight.  On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over 
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 
km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm 
totals 8 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown