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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 63.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight.  On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected
in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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