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Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019
...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 57.9 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today,
but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.
Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.