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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  74.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  74.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  74.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.6N  75.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N  77.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N  78.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.5N  80.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N  81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 30.8N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 31.8N  79.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N  74.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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