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Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane extensively investigated
Humberto during the past several hours. Data from the plane
indicated that the circulation was much better defined than
yesterday and the winds increased to 45 kt. Since the plane
left, satellite images revealed that the cloud pattern has
continued to become better organized, and the low-level center
is now under the convection.  However, the Dvorak numbers still
support keeping the same intensity of 45 kt at this time.

Now that the shear appears to be decreasing and Humberto will be
moving over warm waters, the NHC forecast continues
to call for strengthening.  Humberto is anticipated to become
a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east
of the Florida east coast, and well away from the Bahamas. The
intensity forecast continues to be consistent with the solutions
of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In
addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase
in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has
begun to move very slowly toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees
at 6 kt. The ridge over the western Atlantic that has been trapping
Humberto is already weakening, and this should result in a slow
motion toward the north-northwest and then north during the next day
or so. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude
westerlies, and Humberto, by then a hurricane, is forecast to
sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no
significant increase in forward speed.  Only by the end of the
forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC
forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which once again
clearly depict the slow motion of the system, and then a sharp right
turn in 2 or 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 27.4N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 28.2N  77.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 29.3N  78.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 29.9N  77.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 30.5N  76.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 31.2N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 32.5N  67.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 36.0N  61.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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