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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Special Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1230 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019
ASCAT data received just as the previous advisory was issued
revealed that Gabrielle's center had re-formed closer to the deep
convection, and is about a degree west of where it was previously
estimated. This new center is also now more evident in visible
satellite imagery. The updated position deviates from the
previously issued forecast track by a large enough distance to
require the issuance of a special advisory.
Based on the re-formation of the center, the longer-term motion is
estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/19 kt. The forecast
track has been shifted about a degree westward to account for the
corresponding westward relocation of the center. The initial wind
radii have been adjusted based on the ASCAT data, which led to an
update in the forecast wind radii as well. The initial intensity
of 45 kt was confirmed by the scatterometer data, so no changes
were made to the intensity forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1630Z 31.4N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 32.4N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 34.0N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 39.4N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 45.0N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 51.5N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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