ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

Xavier remains a sheared tropical cyclone.  Although deep convection
continues to develop over the northeastern portion of the
circulation, recent satellite imagery suggests that the center has
become a little more exposed to the southwest of the convective
mass.  Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have not changed
overnight, and a blend of those data along with the latest SATCON
estimate still yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt.

Xavier has likely peaked in intensity as the strong vertical wind
shear over the system is forecast to increase further today and
tonight.  This should result in gradual weakening during the
next day or two, and the new NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the latest multi-model intensity consensus.  The dynamical
models indicate that Xavier will lose its deep convection in 48 to
72 hours, and the official forecast calls for the system to
degenerate to a remnant low by day 3.

The latest satellite fixes suggest that Xavier has made its
anticipated northward turn.  The tropical storm is forecast to
move slowly northward today, but it should turn west-northwestward,
then westward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it weakens and is
steered by the low-level flow to the south of a subtropical ridge.
The UKMET model remains an outlier as it keeps the cyclone stronger
and deeper which allows Xavier to move much farther north.  The
remainder of the track guidance is in good agreement, and the
updated NHC track is near a blend of the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF
models, and is very close to the latest FSSE guidance.

Although the center Xavier is not forecast to move much closer to
the coast of southwestern Mexico, large swells and locally heavy
rainfall could affect portions of that area during the next day or
two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 16.6N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 17.3N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 17.8N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 18.2N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 18.3N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN