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TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 104.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 104.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 104.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 105.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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