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Tropical Storm OLIVIA


Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Olivia remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center
located to the north and northeast of the large area of deep
convection.  Recent ASCAT data revealed a large area of 35-40 kt
winds over the southeastern portion of Olivia's circulation, and is
the basis for the initial wind speed of 40 kt.  The global models
suggest that the northeasterly shear over the cyclone will not
abate as quickly as previous indicated, and much of the intensity
guidance shows less strengthening than before.  The NHC wind speed
forecast has been lowered to be close to the intensity consensus,
but it is not as low as the statistical guidance in order to
maintain consistency with the previous official forecast. Olivia is
foreast to reach cooler waters around day 4 and the tropical
cyclone should weaken by that time.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.
Olivia should turn westward as a large ridge builds to the north of
the system within the next couple of days. After midweek, Olivia
should turn back toward the west-northwest as it reaches the
western portion of the ridge.  The dynamical model guidance
generally agrees with this overall scenario, but there is
cross-track spread regarding how much latitude the system
gains over the next couple of days.  The NHC track is near the
various consensus aids and the GFS ensemble mean, but it is not as
far north as the latest run of the ECMWF that takes Olivia
more northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours.


INIT  02/2100Z 17.0N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 20.6N 128.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 22.3N 134.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

Forecaster Brown