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Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E


Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated that the low-level circulation
remains elongated northeast-to-southwest, with the alleged center
positioned northeast of the deepest convection. Although cloud tops
have cooled significant since the previous advisory, microwave
data indicate that the convection remains loosely organized
underneath the dense cirrus canopy. The initial intensity remains
30 kt for this advisory, which is just below the various satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 290/08 kt. Although the center is
somewhat ill-defined, the models remain remarkably in good
agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next
24-36 h, and then turning westward as the system encounters a
strong subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico
across the eastern North Pacific. The NHC new track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the HCCA
and FSSE consensus models.

 The ECMWF model is forecasting the shear along the cyclone's track
to decrease to less than 10 kt by 12 h and beyond. The combination
of the low shear and warm waters beneath the cyclone supports at
least steady strengthening. The only hindering factor early on is
when the inner-core wind field finally contracts and becomes better
defined to allow for more significant intensification to begin. The
intensity forecast follows the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.


INIT  01/1500Z 14.9N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 15.3N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 16.2N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 16.4N 116.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 18.0N 125.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

Forecaster Stewart