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Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP162018
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 08 2018
Norman is quickly losing the characteristics of a tropical cyclone
as strong vertical wind shear is taking its toll. The low-level
circulation center (LLCC) has been exposed for the better part of a
day now, with sporadic deep convection in the northern semicircle
remaining well removed from the center. Visible satellite imagery
shows the LLCC becoming increasingly elongated, now marked by a 90
nm X 30 nm wide clear area. Intensity estimates support lowering the
initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory as Norman continues to
spin down.
The track forecast takes Norman generally toward the north through
day 3 before briefly turning it northwestward before dissipation on
day 5, in line with GFEX. It appears that Norman will still produce
at least gale force winds for the next couple of days as it
interacts with a developing cold-core low to its northwest, with
GFS indicating winds in excess of 50 kt in 24-36 hours. While this
seems a little extreme, the official intensity forecast indicates
little change in intensity through day 2, with gradual weakening
thereafter.
This will be the last advisory issued by CPHC on this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 26.9N 154.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 28.4N 154.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 09/1800Z 30.2N 154.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 10/0600Z 32.0N 154.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 10/1800Z 33.5N 154.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1800Z 35.0N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 35.5N 157.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Birchard
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