ZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 47 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP162018 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 08 2018 Norman is quickly losing the characteristics of a tropical cyclone as strong vertical wind shear is taking its toll. The low-level circulation center (LLCC) has been exposed for the better part of a day now, with sporadic deep convection in the northern semicircle remaining well removed from the center. Visible satellite imagery shows the LLCC becoming increasingly elongated, now marked by a 90 nm X 30 nm wide clear area. Intensity estimates support lowering the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory as Norman continues to spin down. The track forecast takes Norman generally toward the north through day 3 before briefly turning it northwestward before dissipation on day 5, in line with GFEX. It appears that Norman will still produce at least gale force winds for the next couple of days as it interacts with a developing cold-core low to its northwest, with GFS indicating winds in excess of 50 kt in 24-36 hours. While this seems a little extreme, the official intensity forecast indicates little change in intensity through day 2, with gradual weakening thereafter. This will be the last advisory issued by CPHC on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 26.9N 154.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 28.4N 154.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 09/1800Z 30.2N 154.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 10/0600Z 32.0N 154.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/1800Z 33.5N 154.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1800Z 35.0N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 35.5N 157.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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