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TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Miriam Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152018
500 AM HST Sun Sep 02 2018
 
The center of Miriam has been completely devoid of deep 
convection for almost 24 hours as nearly 50 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear has taken its toll on the system. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from
unclassifiable by SAB to T1.5/25 kt by JTWC, and T2.0/30 kt by
PHFO. The most recent UW-CIMSS ADT yielded an estimated intensity 
of 25 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is 320 deg / 12 kt. A broad mid- to upper-level
trough to the northwest of Miriam will maintain the very strong
vertical wind shear during the next couple of days. Since Miriam
has transitioned to a shallow low-level cloud swirl, it is now 
being steered more toward the northwest under the influence of
a deep subtropical ridge located to the northeast. This
northwestward motion will likely persist through Monday. The latest
forecast track is close to the previous advisory, and remains near
the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the consensus model
guidance, TVCE and HCCA. Under the hostile vertical wind shear and
decreasing SSTs, Miriam will continue weakening. The latest
intensity forecast weakens Miriam at a slightly slower rate than
almost all of the guidance, and is closest to the GFS output. Note
that Miriam is forecast to become a remnant low later today,
followed by dissipation late Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 26.1N 143.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 27.3N 145.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  03/1200Z 28.6N 147.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 29.7N 149.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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