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Hurricane LANE


Hurricane Lane Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that
Lane's overall cloud pattern has continued to improve, with several
spiral bands and a more symmetrical outflow pattern having
developed. Although the inner-core convection has deteriorated
somewhat until just recently due to the entrainment of dry air,
microwave images indicate that a well-defined inner-core and
low-level eye feature has formed. Satellite intensity estimates at
0000 UTC ranged form T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 55 kt and 59 kt
from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an
intensity of 60 kt at that time. Since then, however, a nearly
closed ring of cold-topped convection has developed near the center,
so the intensity is set at 65 kt at the advisory time.

Lanes has made a sharp jog toward the west-northwest during the past
6 hours, but this believed to be a short-term wobble due to the
convection having recently wrapped around the north side of the
low-level center. A return to a general westward motion of 280/13 kt
is expected to resume shortly. The latest model guidance remains in
good agreement on Lane continuing move between westward and
west-northwestward direction for the next 3-4 days, followed by a
turn back toward the west on day 5 as the stout subtropical ridge to
the north strengthens to the east and northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands and as a broad upper-level trough north of Hawaii gradually
lifts out toward the northeast. The new NHC forecast track has been
shifted a little to the right or north of the previous advisory
track, primarily due to the more northward initial position, and
closely follows the HCCA and TVCN/TVCE track consensus models.

Now that a small well-defined inner core and partial eye feature
have developed with a radius of maximum winds of 15-20 nmi, Lane is
poised to rapidly intensity shortly, and sustain that trend for the
next 36 hour so owing to the very low vertical-wind-shear and
warm-SST regime that the cyclone will be moving through. Although
brief intrusions of dry air may result in some flirtations in the
intensity, the general trend should be for Lane to strengthen at a
rate of at least 30 kt per 24 hours for the next 36-48 hours. After
that, the intensity will be modulated by inner-core/eyewall
fluctuations that can not be forecast accurately that far in
advance. By days 4 and 5, however, a slow weakening trend is
expected due to a gradual increase in southwesterly vertical wind
shear. Overall, though, the new NHC intensity forecast is a little
above the previous intensity forecast, and is above all of the
intensity guidance. A good analog that was used for Lane's forecast
was recent Hurricane Hector, which exhibited similar inner-core and
outflow characteristics, and moved through similar environmental and
oceanic conditions.


INIT  17/0300Z 11.2N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 11.5N 131.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 12.0N 134.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 12.5N 137.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 14.4N 145.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 15.2N 149.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 15.6N 153.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

Forecaster Stewart