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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

The cloud pattern of Kristy is a little better organized with
several clusters of deep convection.  The Dvorak T-numbers are
now 3.0/45 kt, and this data is now in better agreement with the
earlier ASCAT pass that was mentioned in the previous discussion.
Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt.  Kristy is
within a low shear environment, and most of the guidance indicates
gradual strengthening. The NHC forecast brings Kristy to hurricane
status in a couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm
waters. By the end of the forecast period, the circulation will
begin to be affected by cooler waters, which should result in
weakening.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 8 kt. The track forecast during the first 24 hours or so
is fairly straightforward since the cyclone is embedded within
deep easterlies. Thereafter, the easterly flow will be interrupted
by the larger circulation of Hurricane John passing to the north of
Kristy, and the cyclone will most likely turn northward in response.
The spread in the guidance becomes large after 24 to 36 hours
with the ECMWF model keeping Kristy on a west-northwest path
while the GFS shows a northward motion as Kristy interacts with
John. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two options and
very closely follows the multi-model consensus.  It should be
noted that there is low confidence in the long range track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 13.8N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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