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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018

The structure of Fabio has improved since the issuance of the
previous advisory.  Just prior to 1200 UTC a ring of -70C and colder
cloud tops wrapped entirely around the warming eye, and an AMSR-2
pass around 0900 UTC indicated that the inner-core convection had
continued to contract and become more symmetric.  Since that time,
the eyewall structure has become less clear on IR imagery, and its
unclear if this is a temporary fluctuation or an indication that
Fabio is already nearing its peak.  The initial intensity has been
raised to 90 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Fabio is beginning to run out of time for further intensification.
The hurricane should remain within a warm SST, low wind shear
environment for the next 12 to 24 hours.  At least some modest
strengthening seems possible over that time, and Fabio is still
forecast to become a major hurricane later today, however it is
worth noting that all of the intensity guidance indicates that Fabio
may already be near its peak intensity.  Beginning tomorrow, the
hurricane will be moving over much cooler SSTs and into a more
stable thermodynamic environment.  Steady to rapid weakening is
inevitable, eventually causing Fabio to degenerate into a remnant
low by the end of the forecast period.  The new NHC intensity
forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance at 12 h, but
very close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids after that.

The hurricane has continued to move toward the west-northwest at
around 13 kt.  All of the dynamical models agree that Fabio will
continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward along the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north for the next
several days.  Very little change has been made to the official
track forecast which remains near the various multi-model consensus
track aids, near the middle of the tightly-clustered guidance
envelope through day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 15.2N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 16.1N 117.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 17.2N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 20.2N 124.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 23.1N 129.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 25.5N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 27.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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