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Tropical Depression SEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The disturbance located well south of Mexico has become better
organized during the day.  Recent visible imagery indicates that the
surface center has become better defined, and TAFB and SAB both
provided a data-T number of 2.0.  On this basis, the system has been
designated as Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity
of 30 kt.

The depression has been moving steadily west-northwestward at 11 kt
today, steered by a mid-level ridge extending from central Mexico
westward over much of the eastern North Pacific.  This ridge
will likely be the dominant steering feature throughout the forecast
period, and the cyclone should continue on a west-northwest heading
at around the same forward speed through the middle of next week.
All of the dynamical models forecast this general scenario and I
have no reason to favor any one particular model, so the official
track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus through
day 5.

While the organization of the cyclone has improved today, the
surface circulation remains fairly broad, and deep convection is
limited to the northern semicircle of the circulation.  In addition,
deep-layer shear of around 15 kt, as analyzed by the GFS and ECMWF,
is currently affecting the depression.  Because of these factors,
any initial intensification will likely be slow to occur.  After
about 24 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, which should
allow the depression to become better organized and strengthen at a
quicker rate.  The dynamical-statistical models bring the cyclone to
near major hurricane intensity by day 4, while the dynamical models
generally show more modest strengthening.  The NHC intensity
forecast is near the intensity consensus for the first 36 hours, and
a little above it, closer to DSHP and LGEM, from 48-96 h. By the end
of the forecast period, the cyclone will reach cooler waters, which
should result in rapid weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 11.2N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 11.6N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 12.2N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 12.9N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 13.5N 112.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 15.0N 117.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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