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Tropical Depression SEVEN-E
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018 The disturbance located well south of Mexico has become better organized during the day. Recent visible imagery indicates that the surface center has become better defined, and TAFB and SAB both provided a data-T number of 2.0. On this basis, the system has been designated as Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has been moving steadily west-northwestward at 11 kt today, steered by a mid-level ridge extending from central Mexico westward over much of the eastern North Pacific. This ridge will likely be the dominant steering feature throughout the forecast period, and the cyclone should continue on a west-northwest heading at around the same forward speed through the middle of next week. All of the dynamical models forecast this general scenario and I have no reason to favor any one particular model, so the official track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus through day 5. While the organization of the cyclone has improved today, the surface circulation remains fairly broad, and deep convection is limited to the northern semicircle of the circulation. In addition, deep-layer shear of around 15 kt, as analyzed by the GFS and ECMWF, is currently affecting the depression. Because of these factors, any initial intensification will likely be slow to occur. After about 24 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, which should allow the depression to become better organized and strengthen at a quicker rate. The dynamical-statistical models bring the cyclone to near major hurricane intensity by day 4, while the dynamical models generally show more modest strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus for the first 36 hours, and a little above it, closer to DSHP and LGEM, from 48-96 h. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone will reach cooler waters, which should result in rapid weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 11.2N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 12.2N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.9N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 13.5N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN