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Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
600 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 110.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 110.0 West. Bud is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next day or so with some increase in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected
to move over the Gulf of California today. The weakening cyclone is
expected to move over mainland Mexico by the end of the day or early
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later
today and dissipate on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
later this morning.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in
northwestern Mexico through Saturday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible in southern
portions of Baja California Sur.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN