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Tropical Depression TWO-E
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018 During the past several hours, a prominent convective band began developing in association with the low pressure system that we have been tracking south of Mexico during the past few days. In using that band for Dvorak estimates, TAFB provided a satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt while SAB provided an estimate of T1.5/25 kt. In addition, GOES-16 1-minute visible satellite imagery showed that the low had developed a closed surface circulation and a well-defined center. Advisories are therefore being initiated on Tropical Depression Two-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt based on an earlier partial ASCAT pass. The depression is currently moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt. However, due to a mid-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico, the cyclone is expected to turn westward and slow down during the next 24 hours. By days 3-5, the cyclone should reach a weakness in the ridge, allowing it to turn back toward the northwest but maintain its slow motion. While the dynamical models all generally agree on this scenario, there are some noticeable differences in the guidance. The ECMWF lies to the south of the other models, while the HWRF is to the north and generally faster than the other guidance. For this first official forecast, the NHC prediction lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and is of average confidence. Environmental conditions appear ideal for intensification. Sea surface temperatures will be close to 30 degrees Celsius for the next 36 hours, while at the same time deep-layer shear will be very low and upper-level divergence will be high. In response, the Rapid Intensification Indices are giving a 50/50 chance of a 45-kt increase in 36 hours and a 55-kt increase in 48 hours. As a result, the NHC official intensity forecast is rather aggressive and lies slightly above the highest guidance through the first 3 days, making the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours. Gradual weakening is expected on days 4 and 5 when the hurricane reaches cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.1N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.3N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.5N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 14.7N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 14.8N 109.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 15.3N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 16.5N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN