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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 64(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 17 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
RICHMOND VA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
NORFOLK NAS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK VA 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
NORFOLK VA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
RALEIGH NC 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKY MT NC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHERRY PT NC 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
NEW RIVER NC 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
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