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Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018
...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion
at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday
night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
northward across the Yucatan Channel today, and then across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday. Michael is
expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big
Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the
southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is
expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to
be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas
in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday night...
Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
may lead to life threatening flash floods.
Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches.
Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.