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Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina from Surf City to Duck including the Pamlico and Albemarle
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Gulf coast west of the Mississippi/
Alabama border has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 86.0 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward
the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael is
expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this
afternoon, move northeastward across the southeastern United States
tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away
from the United States on Friday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall,
Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.
Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and
strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida,
recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust
to 61 mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently
reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida.
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading
onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning areas.
Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of
the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
later today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.