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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER
EASTWARD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO
ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING 
COZUMEL
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA 
BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  85.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  85.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  85.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N  85.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N  86.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N  86.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N  86.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 35.5N  77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 40.5N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  85.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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