ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  65
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AND NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  79.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE  80SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  79.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  79.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.6N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.4N  81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.0N  82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.0N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 41.3N  76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 44.3N  63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.5N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N  79.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


NNNN