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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The cloud pattern has not become any better organized since
yesterday and consists of a low-level center in between two
shapeless blobs of deep convection.  Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased, but the initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  There are no
obvious reasons for why the cyclone will not intensify.  The shear
is forecast to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm.
On this basis, little change is anticipated during the next 24 to 36
hours, and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter.  The
depression still has the opportunity to become a tropical storm.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 8 kt.  The depression is embedded within light easterly
flow south of a subtropical ridge.  Global models indicate that
steering currents will remain weak, and this flow will only provide
a very slow westward motion through the next 5 days.  The NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, but the envelope
broadens by the end of the forecast period, implying less confidence
in 4 and 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 14.9N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 15.0N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 15.5N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 15.3N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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