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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Fernanda has not intensified during the past few hours. The
convective tops surrounding the eye have warmed up a little, but
the overall cloud pattern continues to be very impressive. The
Dvorak  T-numbers are 6.0 and 6.5 indicating that winds are still
around 125 kt.

Fernanda has the possibility of some strengthening during the
next 12 to 24 hours since the hurricane is embedded within light
shear and moving over warm waters. After that time, the hurricane
will likely maintain the same intensity for a couple of days, but a
weakening trend should then begin as the circulation of the cyclone
encounters cooler waters by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
forecast continues to be above the intensity guidance, and does not
vary much from the previous one.

The hurricane is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt.
The cyclone is being steered by a deep layer of easterlies
associated with a strong subtropical ridge. A general westward
track with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is anticipated
as the hurricane approaches the western portion of the ridge over
the next 5 days. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC
forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 10.8N 121.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 11.1N 123.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 11.8N 125.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 12.5N 128.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 13.5N 131.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 15.0N 135.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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