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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017

A ragged eye has become intermittently discernible on conventional
infrared imagery, and this feature is surrounded by very cold
convective tops. The outflow continues to be well established in
the southern and eastern semicircle only. T-numbers have
continued to gradually increase to T4.5 and T5.0 on the Dvorak
scale, and the blend of these numbers support an initial intensity
of 85 kt.

Fernanda is moving across the deep tropics toward an environment of
low shear and warm ocean, and these conditions are very favorable
for additional intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. Given
such favorable environment, the NHC forecast calls for additional
strengthening, and the forecast is a little more aggressive than
indicated in the consensus. It is worth noting that the latest SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index (RI) is not as high as earlier.  Beyond
3 days, Fernanda will likely encounters cooler waters, and a gradual
weakening is expected to begin.

Fernanda is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10kt. The
hurricane is trapped south of a strong and persistent subtropical
ridge, and this pattern should continue to steer the cyclone
westward during the next 2 to 3 days. By then, Fernanda could begin
to move west-northwestward toward a weakening of the subtropical
ridge. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one,
and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. Track guidance
continues to be tightly clustered, and this increases the confidence
in the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 11.0N 117.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 10.8N 119.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 11.0N 121.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 11.4N 123.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 12.0N 125.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 13.5N 130.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 14.5N 134.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 16.0N 137.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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