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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...EYE OF HURRICANE JOSE PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 61.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Martin * Sint Maarten * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (23 km/h). A continued northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will continue to pass north of the northern Leeward Islands through this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to occur over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this evening. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in the portions of Northern Leeward Islands, with with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the tropical storm warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and will begin to affect the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard/Brown NNNN