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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017
Jose remains an impressive hurricane this morning. A 1019z SSMI
microwave pass continued to show a very well defined inner core,
but a more recent 1132z pass showed some erosion of the CDO on the
northwest side. The well defined eye seen earlier in the first light
visible imagery is beginning to constrict and become rather ragged.
Satellite intensity estimates were 6.0 (115 kt) from SAB and CPHC,
and 6.5 (127 kt) at TAFB. We have maintained an intensity of 115 kt
for this advisory.
The initial motion continues to be rather steady at 305/15. Jose is
located to the southeast of a mid-level high, which has continued to
steer the tropical cyclone on this persistent northwest track.
Changes are ahead, however. Global models agree that the mid-level
high will first build southward, allowing Jose to turn more toward
the north in about 36 hours and causing the system to slow
considerably. After 48 hours, the high will build to the west of
Jose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop between
48 and 72 hours. After 72 hours, mid-level ridging becomes
reestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a
west to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period.
Our latest forecast is similar to the previous package, with some
northward adjustment at the end of the period to be in better
agreement with the TVCN consensus model.
The UW-CIMSS wind shear analysis and satellite derived high level
wind fields indicate that Jose is reaching the western end of a
narrow zone of weak shear. Although Jose will remain over SSTs over
29C throughout the forecast period, increasing northerly shear
should induce a weakening trend through the next 72 hours. Global
models show the shear relaxing beyond 72 hours, which may be enough
to allow Jose to reintensify. The IVCN shows a bit more dramatic
weakening, followed by reintensification. Although this is
plausible, the official forecast shows a more modest weakening and
intensification than the IVCN in deference to the uncertainty.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 21.7N 65.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 23.1N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.9N 68.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 26.1N 69.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 26.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 25.4N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 24.2N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 24.8N 71.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
Forecaster R Ballard