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Hurricane HARVEY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   5(10)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   5(16)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   5(18)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   5(10)   4(14)   4(18)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)  13(25)   5(30)   5(35)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   5(13)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   5(15)   2(17)   6(23)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   7(19)   4(23)   4(27)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  2   4( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   9(22)   5(27)   5(32)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
CAMERON LA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JASPER TX      34  2   3( 5)   5(10)   3(13)   7(20)   3(23)   4(27)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  3   5( 8)   8(16)   4(20)  11(31)   2(33)   4(37)
KOUNTZE TX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  3   5( 8)   6(14)   5(19)  11(30)   4(34)   4(38)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 16  18(34)  10(44)   4(48)  15(63)   2(65)   2(67)
GALVESTON TX   50  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   1(17)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 11  33(44)  11(55)   5(60)  12(72)   1(73)   2(75)
HOUSTON TX     50  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   1(16)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  3  45(48)  19(67)   5(72)   6(78)   X(78)   X(78)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)
AUSTIN TX      64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  4  64(68)  13(81)   4(85)   5(90)   X(90)   X(90)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  1   9(10)  14(24)   6(30)   6(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 64  13(77)   4(81)   2(83)   7(90)   X(90)   1(91)
FREEPORT TX    50  2   4( 6)   5(11)   2(13)  13(26)   1(27)   1(28)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 89   1(90)   X(90)   2(92)   3(95)   X(95)   X(95)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   3(10)  17(27)   3(30)   1(31)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  4  11(15)  10(25)   4(29)  14(43)   3(46)   3(49)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34 93   4(97)   X(97)   1(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MATAGORDA TX   50 11  21(32)   5(37)   3(40)  16(56)   1(57)   X(57)
MATAGORDA TX   64  1   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)  11(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 99   X(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PORT O CONNOR  50 48  30(78)   3(81)   1(82)   6(88)   X(88)   X(88)
PORT O CONNOR  64 10  27(37)   2(39)   1(40)  15(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ROCKPORT TX    50 81  17(98)   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ROCKPORT TX    64 42  44(86)   1(87)   X(87)   3(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 55  34(89)   X(89)   1(90)   3(93)   X(93)   X(93)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 11  38(49)   3(52)   X(52)   8(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 
MCALLEN TX     34 10   9(19)   7(26)   4(30)  21(51)   1(52)   1(53)
MCALLEN TX     50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MCALLEN TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
HARLINGEN TX   34 33   7(40)   5(45)   2(47)  19(66)   X(66)   1(67)
HARLINGEN TX   50  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)
HARLINGEN TX   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 22   5(27)   5(32)   4(36)  21(57)   1(58)   1(59)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)  16(28)   4(32)   1(33)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
LA PESCA MX    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     
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