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Tropical Storm HARVEY


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Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Harvey is producing intense convection in bands over the eastern
semicircle of the circulation.  This is resulting in the
continuation of very heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding
over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  There have
been reports of 2-day rainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the
Greater Houston area.  With the additional rains that are expected
over the next several days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in
some locations, which would be historic for the area.

The initial intensity estimate remains 35 kt, based on the
assumption that winds of this strength are occuring in some of the
stronger bands.  Since Harvey is forecast to be back over water just
offshore of the coast during the next couple of days, there is some
potential for restrengthening.  Significant strengthening is not
anticipated, however, due to the system's lack of an inner core and
strong southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough
over Texas.

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving
slowly southeastward, or 130/3 kt.  A mid-level trough dropping
into the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east
and northeast and move back over land in a couple of days.  The
official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model
consensus.

Although the tropical storm warning may need to be extended eastward
along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts later this
morning, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to be
the primary threats.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15
to 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with
isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches.  Please heed the advice
of local officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe
place, and do not drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products
from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A
summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana.
Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in
southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches
expected in south-central Louisiana.  Please heed the advice of
local officials and refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for
more information on the flooding hazard in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 28.6N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 28.4N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  29/0600Z 28.1N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  29/1800Z 28.3N  95.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  30/0600Z 29.0N  94.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  31/0600Z 31.0N  93.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/0600Z 33.4N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0600Z 35.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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