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Tropical Storm HARVEY


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Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

The unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over a
large area of southeastern Texas.  While Harvey has been moving
slowly eastward or east-southeastward today, bands of heavy rainfall
have continued to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland
over much of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Storm
total rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range are quite common in
the Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall amounts of 15 to
25 inches are expected over the next several days.  Rainfall total
could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic
for that area.

Harvey is still producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a recent
observation of 34 kt with a gust to 46 kt at New Braunfels, Texas.
The NHC track guidance is in better agreement showing Harvey moving
just offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then turning northward
and moving inland over northeastern Texas by 72 hours.  All of the
global models show some slight deepening of the system after it
moves over water, but given the lack of an inner core, significant
strengthening is not anticipated.  Although a tropical storm watch
has been issued, which may need to be extended eastward along
the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast tonight, heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to the primary
threats.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15
to 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50
inches, through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials.
Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not
drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 29.0N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  28/0600Z 28.7N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1800Z 28.4N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  29/0600Z 28.2N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  29/1800Z 28.4N  95.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  30/1800Z 29.9N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/1800Z 31.8N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1800Z 33.5N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

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